{smcl}
{com}{sf}{ul off}{txt}{.-}
      name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}C:\Users\be947625\Dropbox\Birds of a Feather\FPA\R&R Version\Replication Materials\Birds of a Feather - Sanctions Busting Analysis - Log File.smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}opened on:  {res} 7 Jan 2021, 15:20:45

{com}. do "C:\Users\be947625\Dropbox\Birds of a Feather\FPA\R&R Version\Replication Materials\Birds of a Feather - Sanctions Busting Analysis - Do File.do"
{txt}
{com}. *************************************************
. *Do File for "Birds of a Feather"                                                       *
. *Foreign Policy Analysis                                                *
. *Last Revised: January 2021                                             *
. *By Bryan R. Early, University at Albany,SUNY   *
. *Contact: bearly@albany.edu                                             *
. *************************************************
. 
.  
. *There are two distinct data sets and analyses employed in "Birds of a Feather." This do file and dataset is for the analysis on sanctions-busting trade, which corresponds to Table 2 in the main text.
. *use "Birds of a Feather\FPA\R&R Version\Replication Materials\Birds of a Feather - Sanctions Busting Analysis - Data Set.dta" 
. 
. 
. **Table 2: Analyzing the Determinants of Extensive Trade-Based Sanctions Busting**
. 
. eststo M1: logit AllBusters PartUSSanct lnlaggdpP lagtradeopenP lagtradesharePT  DP_I DP_II DP_III     JD_I JD_II JD_III lndist  Neighbor lnlaggdpT  SevSanct duration  NoBust NoBust_sq NoBust_cb if  tradeTP!=., robust

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-10408.928}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-7694.9796}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -5673.832}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-5366.4643}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-5346.9982}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-5346.4432}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-5346.4427}  
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    83,143
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}18{txt}){col 67}= {res}   4201.65
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-5346.4427{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.4864

{txt}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 17}{c |}{col 29}    Robust
{col 1}     AllBusters{col 17}{c |}      Coef.{col 29}   Std. Err.{col 41}      z{col 49}   P>|z|{col 57}     [95% Con{col 70}f. Interval]
{hline 16}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}PartUSSanct {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.4113051{col 29}{space 2} .0905426{col 40}{space 1}   -4.54{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.5887652{col 70}{space 3}-.2338449
{txt}{space 6}lnlaggdpP {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .7422984{col 29}{space 2} .0183862{col 40}{space 1}   40.37{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .7062622{col 70}{space 3} .7783347
{txt}{space 2}lagtradeopenP {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  .063017{col 29}{space 2}  .008137{col 40}{space 1}    7.74{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0470688{col 70}{space 3} .0789652
{txt}lagtradesharePT {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 4.216748{col 29}{space 2} .6321214{col 40}{space 1}    6.67{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} 2.977813{col 70}{space 3} 5.455683
{txt}{space 11}DP_I {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .8420317{col 29}{space 2} .0692221{col 40}{space 1}   12.16{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .7063589{col 70}{space 3} .9777045
{txt}{space 10}DP_II {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  .777122{col 29}{space 2}  .104579{col 40}{space 1}    7.43{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}  .572151{col 70}{space 3} .9820931
{txt}{space 9}DP_III {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .8010504{col 29}{space 2} .1403387{col 40}{space 1}    5.71{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .5259916{col 70}{space 3} 1.076109
{txt}{space 11}JD_I {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0981279{col 29}{space 2} .1640602{col 40}{space 1}   -0.60{col 49}{space 3}0.550{col 57}{space 4}-.4196799{col 70}{space 3} .2234241
{txt}{space 10}JD_II {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .3837165{col 29}{space 2} .1065019{col 40}{space 1}    3.60{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .1749767{col 70}{space 3} .5924563
{txt}{space 9}JD_III {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0768707{col 29}{space 2} .0742432{col 40}{space 1}   -1.04{col 49}{space 3}0.300{col 57}{space 4}-.2223847{col 70}{space 3} .0686433
{txt}{space 9}lndist {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.6383556{col 29}{space 2} .0533309{col 40}{space 1}  -11.97{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.7428823{col 70}{space 3} -.533829
{txt}{space 7}Neighbor {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-3.201941{col 29}{space 2} .4420426{col 40}{space 1}   -7.24{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-4.068329{col 70}{space 3}-2.335554
{txt}{space 6}lnlaggdpT {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.1573366{col 29}{space 2} .0181843{col 40}{space 1}   -8.65{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.1929772{col 70}{space 3} -.121696
{txt}{space 7}SevSanct {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0070378{col 29}{space 2}   .07583{col 40}{space 1}    0.09{col 49}{space 3}0.926{col 57}{space 4}-.1415862{col 70}{space 3} .1556619
{txt}{space 7}duration {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  .066162{col 29}{space 2} .0037392{col 40}{space 1}   17.69{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0588333{col 70}{space 3} .0734906
{txt}{space 9}NoBust {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.8837798{col 29}{space 2} .0361244{col 40}{space 1}  -24.46{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.9545823{col 70}{space 3}-.8129773
{txt}{space 6}NoBust_sq {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0434242{col 29}{space 2} .0036753{col 40}{space 1}   11.82{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0362207{col 70}{space 3} .0506277
{txt}{space 6}NoBust_cb {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0006214{col 29}{space 2} .0000816{col 40}{space 1}   -7.61{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.0007814{col 70}{space 3}-.0004614
{txt}{space 10}_cons {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-8.670301{col 29}{space 2}  .633701{col 40}{space 1}  -13.68{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-9.912332{col 70}{space 3} -7.42827
{txt}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 2}Note: 46 failures and 0 successes completely determined.{p_end}

{com}. eststo M2: relogit AllBusters PartUSSanct       lnlaggdpP lagtradeopenP lagtradesharePT  DP_I DP_II DP_III     JD_I JD_II JD_III lndist  Neighbor lnlaggdpT  SevSanct duration  NoBust NoBust_sq NoBust_cb if  tradeTP!=., 
{txt}(44,865 missing values generated)


Corrected logit estimates                             Number of obs ={res}    83143

{txt}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 17}{c |}{col 29}    Robust
{col 1}     AllBusters{col 17}{c |}      Coef.{col 29}   Std. Err.{col 41}      z{col 49}   P>|z|{col 57}     [95% Con{col 70}f. Interval]
{hline 16}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}PartUSSanct {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.4094231{col 29}{space 2} .0905219{col 40}{space 1}   -4.52{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.5868427{col 70}{space 3}-.2320034
{txt}{space 6}lnlaggdpP {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .7411132{col 29}{space 2}  .018382{col 40}{space 1}   40.32{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .7050852{col 70}{space 3} .7771413
{txt}{space 2}lagtradeopenP {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0654175{col 29}{space 2} .0081351{col 40}{space 1}    8.04{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0494729{col 70}{space 3} .0813621
{txt}lagtradesharePT {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 4.189239{col 29}{space 2} .6319833{col 40}{space 1}    6.63{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} 2.950574{col 70}{space 3} 5.427904
{txt}{space 11}DP_I {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .8408287{col 29}{space 2} .0692063{col 40}{space 1}   12.15{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .7051869{col 70}{space 3} .9764705
{txt}{space 10}DP_II {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .7777364{col 29}{space 2} .1045551{col 40}{space 1}    7.44{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .5728122{col 70}{space 3} .9826606
{txt}{space 9}DP_III {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .8021715{col 29}{space 2} .1403068{col 40}{space 1}    5.72{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .5271753{col 70}{space 3} 1.077168
{txt}{space 11}JD_I {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0892288{col 29}{space 2} .1640228{col 40}{space 1}   -0.54{col 49}{space 3}0.586{col 57}{space 4}-.4107075{col 70}{space 3}   .23225
{txt}{space 10}JD_II {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .3848436{col 29}{space 2} .1064775{col 40}{space 1}    3.61{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .1761514{col 70}{space 3} .5935357
{txt}{space 9}JD_III {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0768621{col 29}{space 2} .0742262{col 40}{space 1}   -1.04{col 49}{space 3}0.300{col 57}{space 4}-.2223428{col 70}{space 3} .0686187
{txt}{space 9}lndist {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.6375429{col 29}{space 2} .0533187{col 40}{space 1}  -11.96{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.7420457{col 70}{space 3}-.5330402
{txt}{space 7}Neighbor {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-3.196869{col 29}{space 2} .4419417{col 40}{space 1}   -7.23{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-4.063059{col 70}{space 3} -2.33068
{txt}{space 6}lnlaggdpT {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} -.156938{col 29}{space 2} .0181802{col 40}{space 1}   -8.63{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.1925705{col 70}{space 3}-.1213055
{txt}{space 7}SevSanct {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0079775{col 29}{space 2} .0758127{col 40}{space 1}    0.11{col 49}{space 3}0.916{col 57}{space 4}-.1406126{col 70}{space 3} .1565675
{txt}{space 7}duration {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0660745{col 29}{space 2} .0037383{col 40}{space 1}   17.67{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0587475{col 70}{space 3} .0734014
{txt}{space 9}NoBust {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.8818736{col 29}{space 2} .0361161{col 40}{space 1}  -24.42{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.9526599{col 70}{space 3}-.8110872
{txt}{space 6}NoBust_sq {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0432925{col 29}{space 2} .0036745{col 40}{space 1}   11.78{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0360906{col 70}{space 3} .0504943
{txt}{space 6}NoBust_cb {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0006185{col 29}{space 2} .0000816{col 40}{space 1}   -7.58{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.0007785{col 70}{space 3}-.0004586
{txt}{space 10}_cons {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-8.659483{col 29}{space 2} .6335563{col 40}{space 1}  -13.67{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-9.901231{col 70}{space 3}-7.417736
{txt}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo M3: firthlogit AllBusters PartUSSanct    lnlaggdpP lagtradeopenP lagtradesharePT  DP_I DP_II DP_III     JD_I JD_II JD_III lndist  Neighbor lnlaggdpT  SevSanct duration  NoBust NoBust_sq NoBust_cb if  tradeTP!=., 
{res}
{txt}initial:{col 16}penalized log likelihood = {res:-10333.544}
rescale:{col 16}penalized log likelihood = {res:-10333.544}
{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-10333.544}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-8024.7703}  (not concave)
Iteration 2:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-6210.8674}  (not concave)
Iteration 3:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res: -5897.012}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-5340.7997}  (not concave)
Iteration 5:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-5297.1905}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res: -5276.135}  
Iteration 7:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-5275.9904}  
Iteration 8:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-5275.9903}  
{res}
{txt}{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    83,143
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}18{txt}){col 67}= {res}   4961.07
{txt}Penalized log likelihood = {res}-5275.9903{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     AllBusters{col 17}{c |}      Coef.{col 29}   Std. Err.{col 41}      z{col 49}   P>|z|{col 57}     [95% Con{col 70}f. Interval]
{hline 16}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}PartUSSanct {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.4094354{col 29}{space 2} .0923945{col 40}{space 1}   -4.43{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.5905254{col 70}{space 3}-.2283454
{txt}{space 6}lnlaggdpP {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .7411121{col 29}{space 2} .0198083{col 40}{space 1}   37.41{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .7022886{col 70}{space 3} .7799357
{txt}{space 2}lagtradeopenP {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  .065341{col 29}{space 2}  .016253{col 40}{space 1}    4.02{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0334857{col 70}{space 3} .0971963
{txt}lagtradesharePT {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  4.18985{col 29}{space 2} .4221511{col 40}{space 1}    9.93{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} 3.362449{col 70}{space 3} 5.017251
{txt}{space 11}DP_I {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .8408294{col 29}{space 2} .0760828{col 40}{space 1}   11.05{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .6917099{col 70}{space 3} .9899489
{txt}{space 10}DP_II {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .7777273{col 29}{space 2} .1117663{col 40}{space 1}    6.96{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .5586693{col 70}{space 3} .9967852
{txt}{space 9}DP_III {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .8021391{col 29}{space 2} .1294303{col 40}{space 1}    6.20{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .5484603{col 70}{space 3} 1.055818
{txt}{space 11}JD_I {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0892904{col 29}{space 2} .1600077{col 40}{space 1}   -0.56{col 49}{space 3}0.577{col 57}{space 4}-.4028997{col 70}{space 3}  .224319
{txt}{space 10}JD_II {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .3848479{col 29}{space 2} .1142307{col 40}{space 1}    3.37{col 49}{space 3}0.001{col 57}{space 4} .1609599{col 70}{space 3} .6087359
{txt}{space 9}JD_III {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0768582{col 29}{space 2} .0809164{col 40}{space 1}   -0.95{col 49}{space 3}0.342{col 57}{space 4}-.2354514{col 70}{space 3} .0817351
{txt}{space 9}lndist {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} -.637541{col 29}{space 2} .0383332{col 40}{space 1}  -16.63{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.7126727{col 70}{space 3}-.5624094
{txt}{space 7}Neighbor {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-3.196891{col 29}{space 2} .3068837{col 40}{space 1}  -10.42{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-3.798372{col 70}{space 3} -2.59541
{txt}{space 6}lnlaggdpT {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.1569406{col 29}{space 2} .0174635{col 40}{space 1}   -8.99{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.1911684{col 70}{space 3}-.1227127
{txt}{space 7}SevSanct {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0079782{col 29}{space 2}  .077975{col 40}{space 1}    0.10{col 49}{space 3}0.919{col 57}{space 4}-.1448499{col 70}{space 3} .1608063
{txt}{space 7}duration {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0660751{col 29}{space 2} .0031511{col 40}{space 1}   20.97{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}  .059899{col 70}{space 3} .0722511
{txt}{space 9}NoBust {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.8818698{col 29}{space 2}  .024709{col 40}{space 1}  -35.69{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.9302985{col 70}{space 3}-.8334411
{txt}{space 6}NoBust_sq {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0432921{col 29}{space 2} .0019575{col 40}{space 1}   22.12{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0394555{col 70}{space 3} .0471286
{txt}{space 6}NoBust_cb {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0006185{col 29}{space 2} .0000385{col 40}{space 1}  -16.06{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} -.000694{col 70}{space 3}-.0005431
{txt}{space 10}_cons {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-8.659424{col 29}{space 2} .5170854{col 40}{space 1}  -16.75{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-9.672893{col 70}{space 3}-7.645955
{txt}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. esttab M1 M2 M3,  se(2) pr2 b(3) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)
{res}
{txt}{hline 60}
{txt}                      (1)             (2)             (3)   
{txt}               AllBusters      AllBusters      AllBusters   
{txt}{hline 60}
{res}main                                                        {txt}
{txt}PartUSSanct {res}       -0.411***       -0.409***       -0.409***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.09{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.09{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.09{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}lnlaggdpP   {res}        0.742***        0.741***        0.741***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.02{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.02{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.02{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}lagtradeop~P{res}        0.063***        0.065***        0.065***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.01{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.01{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.02{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}lagtradesh~T{res}        4.217***        4.189***        4.190***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.63{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.63{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.42{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}DP_I        {res}        0.842***        0.841***        0.841***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.07{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.07{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.08{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}DP_II       {res}        0.777***        0.778***        0.778***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.10{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.10{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.11{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}DP_III      {res}        0.801***        0.802***        0.802***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.14{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.14{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.13{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}JD_I        {res}       -0.098          -0.089          -0.089   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.16{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.16{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.16{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}JD_II       {res}        0.384***        0.385***        0.385***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.11{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.11{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.11{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}JD_III      {res}       -0.077          -0.077          -0.077   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.07{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.07{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.08{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}lndist      {res}       -0.638***       -0.638***       -0.638***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.05{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.05{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.04{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Neighbor    {res}       -3.202***       -3.197***       -3.197***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.44{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.44{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.31{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}lnlaggdpT   {res}       -0.157***       -0.157***       -0.157***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.02{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.02{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.02{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}SevSanct    {res}        0.007           0.008           0.008   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.08{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.08{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.08{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}duration    {res}        0.066***        0.066***        0.066***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}NoBust      {res}       -0.884***       -0.882***       -0.882***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.04{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.04{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.02{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}NoBust_sq   {res}        0.043***        0.043***        0.043***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}NoBust_cb   {res}       -0.001***       -0.001***       -0.001***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}_cons       {res}       -8.670***       -8.659***       -8.659***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.63{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.63{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.52{txt:)}}   {txt}
{txt}{hline 60}
{txt}N           {res}        83143           83143           83143   {txt}
{txt}pseudo R-sq {res}        0.486                                   {txt}
{txt}{hline 60}
{txt}Standard errors in parentheses
{txt}* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

{com}. 
. **Appendix Table A1: Summary Statistics for the Sanctions Busting Analyses’ Variables**
. 
. summ AllBusters PartUSSanct     lnlaggdpP lagtradeopenP lagtradesharePT  DP_I DP_II DP_III     JD_I JD_II JD_III lndist  Neighbor lnlaggdpT  SevSanct duration  NoBust

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
{space 2}AllBusters {c |}{res}    128,393    .0197363    .1390932          0          1
{txt}{space 1}PartUSSanct {c |}{res}    128,393     .116268    .3205473          0          1
{txt}{space 3}lnlaggdpP {c |}{res}    122,452    16.42394    2.153996   9.531378   22.64727
{txt}lagtradeop~P {c |}{res}    116,700    .4554797    1.682318   .0003548   31.66153
{txt}lagtradesh~T {c |}{res}     91,899    .0050863    .0321074          0   4.734872
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
{space 8}DP_I {c |}{res}    128,393    .2596325    .4384347          0          1
{txt}{space 7}DP_II {c |}{res}    128,393    .0316684    .1751164          0          1
{txt}{space 6}DP_III {c |}{res}    128,393     .024168    .1535711          0          1
{txt}{space 8}JD_I {c |}{res}    113,194    .0819743    .2743268          0          1
{txt}{space 7}JD_II {c |}{res}    113,194    .0403378    .1967512          0          1
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
{space 6}JD_III {c |}{res}    113,194    .3036203    .4598227          0          1
{txt}{space 6}lndist {c |}{res}    128,393    8.126829    1.471005          0   9.421168
{txt}{space 4}Neighbor {c |}{res}    128,393    .0263799     .160263          0          1
{txt}{space 3}lnlaggdpT {c |}{res}    123,182    17.29616    1.689882   12.22778   22.64727
{txt}{space 4}SevSanct {c |}{res}    128,393    .1348983    .3416163          0          1
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
{space 4}duration {c |}{res}    128,393    10.48843    11.44688          0         56
{txt}{space 6}NoBust {c |}{res}    128,393    8.496943    9.512839          0         56
{txt}
{com}. 
. **Appendix Table A2: Correlation Matrix for the Sanctions Busting Analyses’ Variables**
. corr AllBusters PartUSSanct     lnlaggdpP lagtradeopenP lagtradesharePT  DP_I DP_II DP_III     JD_I JD_II JD_III lndist  Neighbor lnlaggdpT  SevSanct duration  NoBust
{txt}(obs=83,528)

             {c |} AllBus~s PartUS~t lnlagg~P lagtra~P lagtra~T     DP_I    DP_II   DP_III     JD_I    JD_II   JD_III   lndist Neighbor lnlagg~T SevSanct duration
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 144}
  AllBusters {c |}{res}   1.0000
 {txt}PartUSSanct {c |}{res}  -0.0035   1.0000
   {txt}lnlaggdpP {c |}{res}   0.2181   0.0990   1.0000
{txt}lagtradeop~P {c |}{res}  -0.0089  -0.0650  -0.0986   1.0000
{txt}lagtradesh~T {c |}{res}   0.0893   0.0278  -0.0154  -0.0199   1.0000
        {txt}DP_I {c |}{res}   0.1023  -0.0814   0.2876   0.1074  -0.0562   1.0000
       {txt}DP_II {c |}{res}   0.0473   0.0332  -0.0241  -0.0263   0.0450  -0.1278   1.0000
      {txt}DP_III {c |}{res}   0.0438   0.0664  -0.0236  -0.0039   0.0967  -0.1185  -0.0356   1.0000
        {txt}JD_I {c |}{res}  -0.0366   0.0258  -0.1461  -0.0323   0.0141  -0.0815  -0.0165  -0.0548   1.0000
       {txt}JD_II {c |}{res}   0.0328  -0.0682   0.0567   0.0270  -0.0044   0.0948   0.0993  -0.0414  -0.0705   1.0000
      {txt}JD_III {c |}{res}   0.0816  -0.2049   0.3111   0.1008  -0.0403   0.4316  -0.0045  -0.1216  -0.2240  -0.1676   1.0000
      {txt}lndist {c |}{res}  -0.1470  -0.0662  -0.0207   0.0181  -0.2256   0.1698  -0.1992  -0.2808   0.0151   0.0183   0.0841   1.0000
    {txt}Neighbor {c |}{res}   0.1306   0.0724   0.0307  -0.0288   0.2159  -0.0845   0.1338   0.2108  -0.0088  -0.0159  -0.0689  -0.8955   1.0000
   {txt}lnlaggdpT {c |}{res}  -0.0177   0.0317   0.0686  -0.0025   0.1665  -0.0569  -0.0517  -0.0453   0.0337   0.0341  -0.0260  -0.0333   0.0476   1.0000
    {txt}SevSanct {c |}{res}   0.0007  -0.0022   0.0374  -0.0007  -0.0164   0.0016  -0.0032  -0.0265  -0.0986  -0.0600   0.0434  -0.0409   0.0061   0.0598   1.0000
    {txt}duration {c |}{res}  -0.0019   0.0012   0.1074  -0.0071  -0.0359  -0.0040  -0.0890  -0.0246  -0.0283  -0.0069   0.0541   0.0485  -0.0321   0.0461  -0.1328   1.0000
      {txt}NoBust {c |}{res}  -0.1219   0.0239   0.0738   0.0019  -0.0473   0.0131  -0.0842  -0.0239  -0.0175  -0.0064   0.0400   0.0736  -0.0488   0.0589  -0.1171   0.8924

             {txt}{c |}   NoBust
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 9}
      NoBust {c |}{res}   1.0000

{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. **Appendix Table A3: Analyzing the Determinants of Extensive Trade-Based Sanctions Busting Using a Constrained Model**
. 
. eststo M4: logit AllBusters      PartUSSanct    lnlaggdpP lndist  Neighbor lnlaggdpT  NoBust NoBust_sq NoBust_cb if  tradeTP!=., robust

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-10617.773}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-7580.3029}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -5936.146}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -5810.161}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -5808.973}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-5808.9729}  
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    89,615
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}8{txt}){col 67}= {res}   4239.76
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-5808.9729{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.4529

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}  AllBusters{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 1}PartUSSanct {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8194833{col 26}{space 2} .0858222{col 37}{space 1}   -9.55{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.9876918{col 67}{space 3}-.6512748
{txt}{space 3}lnlaggdpP {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .8633613{col 26}{space 2} .0163942{col 37}{space 1}   52.66{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .8312292{col 67}{space 3} .8954934
{txt}{space 6}lndist {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.7207501{col 26}{space 2} .0478356{col 37}{space 1}  -15.07{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.8145062{col 67}{space 3} -.626994
{txt}{space 4}Neighbor {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.586024{col 26}{space 2} .4079372{col 37}{space 1}   -8.79{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-4.385566{col 67}{space 3}-2.786482
{txt}{space 3}lnlaggdpT {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0981927{col 26}{space 2} .0156924{col 37}{space 1}   -6.26{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.1289493{col 67}{space 3}-.0674361
{txt}{space 6}NoBust {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8958048{col 26}{space 2} .0360883{col 37}{space 1}  -24.82{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.9665366{col 67}{space 3}-.8250731
{txt}{space 3}NoBust_sq {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0475885{col 26}{space 2} .0037685{col 37}{space 1}   12.63{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0402025{col 67}{space 3} .0549746
{txt}{space 3}NoBust_cb {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0006846{col 26}{space 2} .0000845{col 37}{space 1}   -8.10{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0008503{col 67}{space 3} -.000519
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-10.39575{col 26}{space 2} .5622924{col 37}{space 1}  -18.49{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-11.49782{col 67}{space 3}-9.293677
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 2}Note: 78 failures and 0 successes completely determined.{p_end}

{com}. eststo M5: relogit AllBusters    PartUSSanct    lnlaggdpP lndist  Neighbor lnlaggdpT   NoBust NoBust_sq NoBust_cb if  tradeTP!=., 
{txt}(7,430 missing values generated)


Corrected logit estimates                             Number of obs ={res}    89615

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}  AllBusters{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 1}PartUSSanct {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8178663{col 26}{space 2} .0858127{col 37}{space 1}   -9.53{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.9860562{col 67}{space 3}-.6496765
{txt}{space 3}lnlaggdpP {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .8627117{col 26}{space 2} .0163924{col 37}{space 1}   52.63{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .8305832{col 67}{space 3} .8948401
{txt}{space 6}lndist {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.7202708{col 26}{space 2} .0478304{col 37}{space 1}  -15.06{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.8140166{col 67}{space 3} -.626525
{txt}{space 4}Neighbor {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.583274{col 26}{space 2} .4078924{col 37}{space 1}   -8.78{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-4.382729{col 67}{space 3} -2.78382
{txt}{space 3}lnlaggdpT {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0980004{col 26}{space 2} .0156907{col 37}{space 1}   -6.25{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.1287536{col 67}{space 3}-.0672472
{txt}{space 6}NoBust {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8945123{col 26}{space 2} .0360833{col 37}{space 1}  -24.79{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.9652343{col 67}{space 3}-.8237903
{txt}{space 3}NoBust_sq {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0474884{col 26}{space 2} .0037679{col 37}{space 1}   12.60{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0401034{col 67}{space 3} .0548733
{txt}{space 3}NoBust_cb {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0006822{col 26}{space 2} .0000845{col 37}{space 1}   -8.07{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0008479{col 67}{space 3}-.0005166
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -10.3901{col 26}{space 2} .5622307{col 37}{space 1}  -18.48{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-11.49205{col 67}{space 3}-9.288149
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo M6: firthlogit AllBusters PartUSSanct    lnlaggdpP lndist  Neighbor lnlaggdpT  NoBust NoBust_sq NoBust_cb if  tradeTP!=., 
{res}
{txt}initial:{col 16}penalized log likelihood = {res:-10570.359}
rescale:{col 16}penalized log likelihood = {res:-10570.359}
{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-10570.359}  (not concave)
Iteration 1:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-9912.0874}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-8311.3563}  (not concave)
Iteration 3:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-6033.5684}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-5778.8758}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-5765.7808}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-5765.4126}  
Iteration 7:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-5765.4125}  
{res}
{txt}{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    89,615
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}8{txt}){col 67}= {res}   4752.28
{txt}Penalized log likelihood = {res}-5765.4125{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}  AllBusters{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 1}PartUSSanct {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8178738{col 26}{space 2} .0821194{col 37}{space 1}   -9.96{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.9788249{col 67}{space 3}-.6569228
{txt}{space 3}lnlaggdpP {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .8627109{col 26}{space 2} .0167264{col 37}{space 1}   51.58{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .8299277{col 67}{space 3} .8954941
{txt}{space 6}lndist {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.7202704{col 26}{space 2} .0350732{col 37}{space 1}  -20.54{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.7890125{col 67}{space 3}-.6515282
{txt}{space 4}Neighbor {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.583278{col 26}{space 2} .2894606{col 37}{space 1}  -12.38{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-4.150611{col 67}{space 3}-3.015946
{txt}{space 3}lnlaggdpT {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0980001{col 26}{space 2}  .015639{col 37}{space 1}   -6.27{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.1286519{col 67}{space 3}-.0673482
{txt}{space 6}NoBust {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8945079{col 26}{space 2} .0242843{col 37}{space 1}  -36.83{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.9421043{col 67}{space 3}-.8469116
{txt}{space 3}NoBust_sq {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0474878{col 26}{space 2} .0019517{col 37}{space 1}   24.33{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0436626{col 67}{space 3} .0513131
{txt}{space 3}NoBust_cb {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0006822{col 26}{space 2} .0000387{col 37}{space 1}  -17.62{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0007581{col 67}{space 3}-.0006063
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -10.3901{col 26}{space 2} .4590136{col 37}{space 1}  -22.64{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-11.28975{col 67}{space 3}-9.490448
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. esttab M4 M5 M6,  se(2) pr2 b(3) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)
{res}
{txt}{hline 60}
{txt}                      (1)             (2)             (3)   
{txt}               AllBusters      AllBusters      AllBusters   
{txt}{hline 60}
{res}main                                                        {txt}
{txt}PartUSSanct {res}       -0.819***       -0.818***       -0.818***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.09{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.09{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.08{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}lnlaggdpP   {res}        0.863***        0.863***        0.863***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.02{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.02{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.02{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}lndist      {res}       -0.721***       -0.720***       -0.720***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.05{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.05{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.04{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Neighbor    {res}       -3.586***       -3.583***       -3.583***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.41{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.41{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.29{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}lnlaggdpT   {res}       -0.098***       -0.098***       -0.098***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.02{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.02{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.02{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}NoBust      {res}       -0.896***       -0.895***       -0.895***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.04{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.04{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.02{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}NoBust_sq   {res}        0.048***        0.047***        0.047***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}NoBust_cb   {res}       -0.001***       -0.001***       -0.001***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}_cons       {res}      -10.396***      -10.390***      -10.390***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.56{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.56{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.46{txt:)}}   {txt}
{txt}{hline 60}
{txt}N           {res}        89615           89615           89615   {txt}
{txt}pseudo R-sq {res}        0.453                                   {txt}
{txt}{hline 60}
{txt}Standard errors in parentheses
{txt}* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

{com}. 
. **Appendix Table A4: Analyzing the Determinants of Extensive Trade-Based Sanctions Busting Without the Top-5 Leading Sanctions Busters**
. eststo M7: logit AllBusters PartUSSanct lnlaggdpP lagtradeopenP lagtradesharePT  DP_I DP_II DP_III     JD_I JD_II JD_III lndist  Neighbor lnlaggdpT  SevSanct duration  NoBust NoBust_sq NoBust_cb if  tradeTP!=. & TopBuster!=1, robust

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-6331.7236}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-4567.4827}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-3682.7802}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-3503.8943}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -3500.102}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-3500.0854}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-3500.0854}  
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    79,791
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}18{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2667.96
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-3500.0854{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.4472

{txt}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 17}{c |}{col 29}    Robust
{col 1}     AllBusters{col 17}{c |}      Coef.{col 29}   Std. Err.{col 41}      z{col 49}   P>|z|{col 57}     [95% Con{col 70}f. Interval]
{hline 16}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}PartUSSanct {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.2465957{col 29}{space 2} .0940296{col 40}{space 1}   -2.62{col 49}{space 3}0.009{col 57}{space 4}-.4308903{col 70}{space 3}-.0623011
{txt}{space 6}lnlaggdpP {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  .666182{col 29}{space 2} .0228055{col 40}{space 1}   29.21{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}  .621484{col 70}{space 3} .7108801
{txt}{space 2}lagtradeopenP {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0888918{col 29}{space 2} .0082757{col 40}{space 1}   10.74{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0726718{col 70}{space 3} .1051118
{txt}lagtradesharePT {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 4.051688{col 29}{space 2} .5713279{col 40}{space 1}    7.09{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} 2.931906{col 70}{space 3} 5.171471
{txt}{space 11}DP_I {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .3411323{col 29}{space 2} .0965127{col 40}{space 1}    3.53{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .1519709{col 70}{space 3} .5302938
{txt}{space 10}DP_II {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .6602713{col 29}{space 2} .1074227{col 40}{space 1}    6.15{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .4497266{col 70}{space 3} .8708159
{txt}{space 9}DP_III {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .5576845{col 29}{space 2} .1330382{col 40}{space 1}    4.19{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .2969343{col 70}{space 3} .8184346
{txt}{space 11}JD_I {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0190106{col 29}{space 2} .1687983{col 40}{space 1}   -0.11{col 49}{space 3}0.910{col 57}{space 4}-.3498492{col 70}{space 3}  .311828
{txt}{space 10}JD_II {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0177178{col 29}{space 2}   .17184{col 40}{space 1}   -0.10{col 49}{space 3}0.918{col 57}{space 4}-.3545181{col 70}{space 3} .3190825
{txt}{space 9}JD_III {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.2978569{col 29}{space 2}    .0907{col 40}{space 1}   -3.28{col 49}{space 3}0.001{col 57}{space 4}-.4756257{col 70}{space 3}-.1200881
{txt}{space 9}lndist {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.8938333{col 29}{space 2} .0707883{col 40}{space 1}  -12.63{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-1.032576{col 70}{space 3}-.7550908
{txt}{space 7}Neighbor {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} -5.04813{col 29}{space 2}  .563056{col 40}{space 1}   -8.97{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-6.151699{col 70}{space 3} -3.94456
{txt}{space 6}lnlaggdpT {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} -.204175{col 29}{space 2} .0257485{col 40}{space 1}   -7.93{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.2546411{col 70}{space 3}-.1537088
{txt}{space 7}SevSanct {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0420762{col 29}{space 2} .1025093{col 40}{space 1}   -0.41{col 49}{space 3}0.681{col 57}{space 4}-.2429907{col 70}{space 3} .1588382
{txt}{space 7}duration {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0835903{col 29}{space 2} .0040046{col 40}{space 1}   20.87{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0757414{col 70}{space 3} .0914392
{txt}{space 9}NoBust {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.7989832{col 29}{space 2} .0401841{col 40}{space 1}  -19.88{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.8777426{col 70}{space 3}-.7202238
{txt}{space 6}NoBust_sq {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0364927{col 29}{space 2} .0036917{col 40}{space 1}    9.88{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0292571{col 70}{space 3} .0437284
{txt}{space 6}NoBust_cb {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0004994{col 29}{space 2} .0000774{col 40}{space 1}   -6.45{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.0006511{col 70}{space 3}-.0003477
{txt}{space 10}_cons {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-4.618773{col 29}{space 2} .7955541{col 40}{space 1}   -5.81{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} -6.17803{col 70}{space 3}-3.059516
{txt}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo M8: relogit AllBusters PartUSSanct       lnlaggdpP lagtradeopenP lagtradesharePT  DP_I DP_II DP_III     JD_I JD_II JD_III lndist  Neighbor lnlaggdpT  SevSanct duration  NoBust NoBust_sq NoBust_cb if  tradeTP!=. & TopBuster!=1, 
{txt}(44,865 missing values generated)


Corrected logit estimates                             Number of obs ={res}    79791

{txt}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 17}{c |}{col 29}    Robust
{col 1}     AllBusters{col 17}{c |}      Coef.{col 29}   Std. Err.{col 41}      z{col 49}   P>|z|{col 57}     [95% Con{col 70}f. Interval]
{hline 16}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}PartUSSanct {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.2447505{col 29}{space 2} .0940064{col 40}{space 1}   -2.60{col 49}{space 3}0.009{col 57}{space 4}-.4289997{col 70}{space 3}-.0605013
{txt}{space 6}lnlaggdpP {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .6646375{col 29}{space 2} .0227999{col 40}{space 1}   29.15{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .6199506{col 70}{space 3} .7093245
{txt}{space 2}lagtradeopenP {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0911457{col 29}{space 2} .0082736{col 40}{space 1}   11.02{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0749297{col 70}{space 3} .1073617
{txt}lagtradesharePT {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 4.028258{col 29}{space 2} .5711907{col 40}{space 1}    7.05{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} 2.908745{col 70}{space 3} 5.147771
{txt}{space 11}DP_I {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  .341002{col 29}{space 2} .0964888{col 40}{space 1}    3.53{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .1518874{col 70}{space 3} .5301166
{txt}{space 10}DP_II {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .6606353{col 29}{space 2} .1073965{col 40}{space 1}    6.15{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .4501421{col 70}{space 3} .8711285
{txt}{space 9}DP_III {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .5582362{col 29}{space 2} .1330057{col 40}{space 1}    4.20{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .2975498{col 70}{space 3} .8189225
{txt}{space 11}JD_I {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0098044{col 29}{space 2} .1687563{col 40}{space 1}   -0.06{col 49}{space 3}0.954{col 57}{space 4}-.3405607{col 70}{space 3} .3209519
{txt}{space 10}JD_II {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0110423{col 29}{space 2} .1717976{col 40}{space 1}   -0.06{col 49}{space 3}0.949{col 57}{space 4}-.3477593{col 70}{space 3} .3256748
{txt}{space 9}JD_III {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.2972701{col 29}{space 2} .0906776{col 40}{space 1}   -3.28{col 49}{space 3}0.001{col 57}{space 4} -.474995{col 70}{space 3}-.1195453
{txt}{space 9}lndist {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} -.892758{col 29}{space 2} .0707707{col 40}{space 1}  -12.61{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-1.031466{col 70}{space 3}-.7540498
{txt}{space 7}Neighbor {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-5.042378{col 29}{space 2} .5629169{col 40}{space 1}   -8.96{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-6.145674{col 70}{space 3}-3.939081
{txt}{space 6}lnlaggdpT {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.2035738{col 29}{space 2} .0257422{col 40}{space 1}   -7.91{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.2540275{col 70}{space 3}-.1531201
{txt}{space 7}SevSanct {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0396242{col 29}{space 2} .1024841{col 40}{space 1}   -0.39{col 49}{space 3}0.699{col 57}{space 4}-.2404892{col 70}{space 3} .1612409
{txt}{space 7}duration {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0834411{col 29}{space 2} .0040036{col 40}{space 1}   20.84{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0755941{col 70}{space 3}  .091288
{txt}{space 9}NoBust {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.7963959{col 29}{space 2}  .040174{col 40}{space 1}  -19.82{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.8751355{col 70}{space 3}-.7176562
{txt}{space 6}NoBust_sq {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  .036328{col 29}{space 2} .0036908{col 40}{space 1}    9.84{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0290941{col 70}{space 3} .0435619
{txt}{space 6}NoBust_cb {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0004961{col 29}{space 2} .0000774{col 40}{space 1}   -6.41{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.0006478{col 70}{space 3}-.0003444
{txt}{space 10}_cons {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-4.606071{col 29}{space 2} .7953582{col 40}{space 1}   -5.79{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-6.164945{col 70}{space 3}-3.047198
{txt}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo M9: firthlogit AllBusters PartUSSanct    lnlaggdpP lagtradeopenP lagtradesharePT  DP_I DP_II DP_III     JD_I JD_II JD_III lndist  Neighbor lnlaggdpT  SevSanct duration  NoBust NoBust_sq NoBust_cb if  tradeTP!=. & TopBuster!=1, 
{res}
{txt}initial:{col 16}penalized log likelihood = {res:-6262.0927}
rescale:{col 16}penalized log likelihood = {res:-6262.0927}
{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-6262.0927}  (not concave)
Iteration 1:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-6136.5684}  (not concave)
Iteration 2:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-5428.5475}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-4280.9999}  (not concave)
Iteration 4:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-3986.6162}  (not concave)
Iteration 5:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-3876.0899}  (not concave)
Iteration 6:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-3829.3342}  
Iteration 7:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-3544.1903}  
Iteration 8:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:  -3459.87}  
Iteration 9:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-3439.1241}  
Iteration 10:{space 2}penalized log likelihood = {res:-3432.5772}  
Iteration 11:{space 2}penalized log likelihood = {res:-3432.3966}  
Iteration 12:{space 2}penalized log likelihood = {res:-3432.3957}  
Iteration 13:{space 2}penalized log likelihood = {res:-3432.3957}  
{res}
{txt}{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    79,791
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}18{txt}){col 67}= {res}   3323.75
{txt}Penalized log likelihood = {res}-3432.3957{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     AllBusters{col 17}{c |}      Coef.{col 29}   Std. Err.{col 41}      z{col 49}   P>|z|{col 57}     [95% Con{col 70}f. Interval]
{hline 16}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}PartUSSanct {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.2447652{col 29}{space 2}  .095961{col 40}{space 1}   -2.55{col 49}{space 3}0.011{col 57}{space 4}-.4328453{col 70}{space 3}-.0566851
{txt}{space 6}lnlaggdpP {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .6646352{col 29}{space 2} .0236664{col 40}{space 1}   28.08{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .6182499{col 70}{space 3} .7110205
{txt}{space 2}lagtradeopenP {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0910669{col 29}{space 2} .0162646{col 40}{space 1}    5.60{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0591889{col 70}{space 3} .1229448
{txt}lagtradesharePT {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 4.028797{col 29}{space 2} .4144168{col 40}{space 1}    9.72{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} 3.216555{col 70}{space 3} 4.841039
{txt}{space 11}DP_I {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .3410027{col 29}{space 2} .0963864{col 40}{space 1}    3.54{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .1520887{col 70}{space 3} .5299166
{txt}{space 10}DP_II {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .6606309{col 29}{space 2} .1175875{col 40}{space 1}    5.62{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .4301635{col 70}{space 3} .8910982
{txt}{space 9}DP_III {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .5582116{col 29}{space 2} .1272324{col 40}{space 1}    4.39{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .3088406{col 70}{space 3} .8075826
{txt}{space 11}JD_I {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0098696{col 29}{space 2} .1658237{col 40}{space 1}   -0.06{col 49}{space 3}0.953{col 57}{space 4}-.3348782{col 70}{space 3} .3151389
{txt}{space 10}JD_II {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} -.011054{col 29}{space 2} .1694386{col 40}{space 1}   -0.07{col 49}{space 3}0.948{col 57}{space 4}-.3431475{col 70}{space 3} .3210395
{txt}{space 9}JD_III {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.2972678{col 29}{space 2}  .092653{col 40}{space 1}   -3.21{col 49}{space 3}0.001{col 57}{space 4}-.4788644{col 70}{space 3}-.1156712
{txt}{space 9}lndist {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.8927503{col 29}{space 2} .0501676{col 40}{space 1}  -17.80{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.9910771{col 70}{space 3}-.7944236
{txt}{space 7}Neighbor {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-5.042353{col 29}{space 2} .3912268{col 40}{space 1}  -12.89{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-5.809144{col 70}{space 3}-4.275563
{txt}{space 6}lnlaggdpT {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.2035773{col 29}{space 2} .0237618{col 40}{space 1}   -8.57{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.2501495{col 70}{space 3}-.1570051
{txt}{space 7}SevSanct {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0396343{col 29}{space 2} .1057918{col 40}{space 1}   -0.37{col 49}{space 3}0.708{col 57}{space 4}-.2469825{col 70}{space 3} .1677139
{txt}{space 7}duration {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0834421{col 29}{space 2} .0036114{col 40}{space 1}   23.11{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0763639{col 70}{space 3} .0905204
{txt}{space 9}NoBust {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.7963875{col 29}{space 2} .0291046{col 40}{space 1}  -27.36{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.8534314{col 70}{space 3}-.7393436
{txt}{space 6}NoBust_sq {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  .036327{col 29}{space 2} .0021788{col 40}{space 1}   16.67{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0320565{col 70}{space 3} .0405975
{txt}{space 6}NoBust_cb {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0004961{col 29}{space 2} .0000406{col 40}{space 1}  -12.20{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.0005757{col 70}{space 3}-.0004164
{txt}{space 10}_cons {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-4.606034{col 29}{space 2} .6561469{col 40}{space 1}   -7.02{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-5.892059{col 70}{space 3} -3.32001
{txt}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. esttab M7 M8 M9,  se(2) pr2 b(3) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)
{res}
{txt}{hline 60}
{txt}                      (1)             (2)             (3)   
{txt}               AllBusters      AllBusters      AllBusters   
{txt}{hline 60}
{res}main                                                        {txt}
{txt}PartUSSanct {res}       -0.247***       -0.245***       -0.245** {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.09{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.09{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.10{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}lnlaggdpP   {res}        0.666***        0.665***        0.665***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.02{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.02{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.02{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}lagtradeop~P{res}        0.089***        0.091***        0.091***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.01{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.01{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.02{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}lagtradesh~T{res}        4.052***        4.028***        4.029***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.57{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.57{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.41{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}DP_I        {res}        0.341***        0.341***        0.341***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.10{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.10{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.10{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}DP_II       {res}        0.660***        0.661***        0.661***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.11{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.11{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.12{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}DP_III      {res}        0.558***        0.558***        0.558***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.13{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.13{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.13{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}JD_I        {res}       -0.019          -0.010          -0.010   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.17{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.17{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.17{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}JD_II       {res}       -0.018          -0.011          -0.011   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.17{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.17{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.17{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}JD_III      {res}       -0.298***       -0.297***       -0.297***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.09{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.09{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.09{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}lndist      {res}       -0.894***       -0.893***       -0.893***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.07{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.07{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.05{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Neighbor    {res}       -5.048***       -5.042***       -5.042***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.56{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.56{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.39{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}lnlaggdpT   {res}       -0.204***       -0.204***       -0.204***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.03{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.03{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.02{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}SevSanct    {res}       -0.042          -0.040          -0.040   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.10{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.10{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.11{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}duration    {res}        0.084***        0.083***        0.083***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}NoBust      {res}       -0.799***       -0.796***       -0.796***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.04{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.04{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.03{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}NoBust_sq   {res}        0.036***        0.036***        0.036***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}NoBust_cb   {res}       -0.000***       -0.000***       -0.000***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}_cons       {res}       -4.619***       -4.606***       -4.606***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.80{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.80{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.66{txt:)}}   {txt}
{txt}{hline 60}
{txt}N           {res}        79791           79791           79791   {txt}
{txt}pseudo R-sq {res}        0.447                                   {txt}
{txt}{hline 60}
{txt}Standard errors in parentheses
{txt}* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

{com}. 
. **Appendix Table A5: Analyzing the Determinants of Extensive Trade-Based Sanctions Busting in First 3 Years (Models 1-2) vs. After 3 Years (Models 3-4)**
. 
. eststo M10: relogit AllBusters PartUSSanct      lnlaggdpP lagtradeopenP lagtradesharePT  DP_I DP_II DP_III     JD_I JD_II JD_III lndist  Neighbor lnlaggdpT  SevSanct NoBust NoBust_sq NoBust_cb if  tradeTP!=. & duration<=3 
{txt}(44,865 missing values generated)


Corrected logit estimates                             Number of obs ={res}    30608

{txt}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 17}{c |}{col 29}    Robust
{col 1}     AllBusters{col 17}{c |}      Coef.{col 29}   Std. Err.{col 41}      z{col 49}   P>|z|{col 57}     [95% Con{col 70}f. Interval]
{hline 16}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}PartUSSanct {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.3010329{col 29}{space 2} .1226734{col 40}{space 1}   -2.45{col 49}{space 3}0.014{col 57}{space 4}-.5414683{col 70}{space 3}-.0605975
{txt}{space 6}lnlaggdpP {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .7906897{col 29}{space 2} .0267847{col 40}{space 1}   29.52{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .7381928{col 70}{space 3} .8431867
{txt}{space 2}lagtradeopenP {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0501647{col 29}{space 2} .0156169{col 40}{space 1}    3.21{col 49}{space 3}0.001{col 57}{space 4} .0195561{col 70}{space 3} .0807733
{txt}lagtradesharePT {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 3.893172{col 29}{space 2} .5567547{col 40}{space 1}    6.99{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} 2.801953{col 70}{space 3} 4.984391
{txt}{space 11}DP_I {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 1.110287{col 29}{space 2} .1058936{col 40}{space 1}   10.48{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .9027395{col 70}{space 3} 1.317835
{txt}{space 10}DP_II {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 1.124686{col 29}{space 2} .1397156{col 40}{space 1}    8.05{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .8508481{col 70}{space 3} 1.398523
{txt}{space 9}DP_III {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .8492872{col 29}{space 2} .2182488{col 40}{space 1}    3.89{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .4215274{col 70}{space 3} 1.277047
{txt}{space 11}JD_I {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .2802998{col 29}{space 2} .2089262{col 40}{space 1}    1.34{col 49}{space 3}0.180{col 57}{space 4}-.1291879{col 70}{space 3} .6897876
{txt}{space 10}JD_II {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .5737588{col 29}{space 2} .1608332{col 40}{space 1}    3.57{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .2585316{col 70}{space 3}  .888986
{txt}{space 9}JD_III {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .1217261{col 29}{space 2} .1068618{col 40}{space 1}    1.14{col 49}{space 3}0.255{col 57}{space 4}-.0877191{col 70}{space 3} .3311714
{txt}{space 9}lndist {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.7389737{col 29}{space 2} .0911308{col 40}{space 1}   -8.11{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.9175868{col 70}{space 3}-.5603607
{txt}{space 7}Neighbor {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-3.706175{col 29}{space 2} .7489102{col 40}{space 1}   -4.95{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-5.174012{col 70}{space 3}-2.238337
{txt}{space 6}lnlaggdpT {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.2192103{col 29}{space 2} .0256866{col 40}{space 1}   -8.53{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.2695551{col 70}{space 3}-.1688656
{txt}{space 7}SevSanct {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.3248915{col 29}{space 2}  .129279{col 40}{space 1}   -2.51{col 49}{space 3}0.012{col 57}{space 4}-.5782736{col 70}{space 3}-.0715094
{txt}{space 9}NoBust {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} -1.97042{col 29}{space 2} .3560848{col 40}{space 1}   -5.53{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-2.668334{col 70}{space 3}-1.272507
{txt}{space 6}NoBust_sq {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .5784035{col 29}{space 2} .3638003{col 40}{space 1}    1.59{col 49}{space 3}0.112{col 57}{space 4} -.134632{col 70}{space 3} 1.291439
{txt}{space 6}NoBust_cb {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0554824{col 29}{space 2} .0853674{col 40}{space 1}   -0.65{col 49}{space 3}0.516{col 57}{space 4}-.2227994{col 70}{space 3} .1118347
{txt}{space 10}_cons {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-8.126299{col 29}{space 2}  .969563{col 40}{space 1}   -8.38{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-10.02661{col 70}{space 3}-6.225991
{txt}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo M11: firthlogit AllBusters PartUSSanct   lnlaggdpP lagtradeopenP lagtradesharePT  DP_I DP_II DP_III     JD_I JD_II JD_III lndist  Neighbor lnlaggdpT  SevSanct NoBust NoBust_sq NoBust_cb if  tradeTP!=. & duration<=3 
{res}
{txt}initial:{col 16}penalized log likelihood = {res:-3967.8975}
rescale:{col 16}penalized log likelihood = {res:-3967.8975}
{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-3967.8975}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-3209.0353}  (not concave)
Iteration 2:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:  -2842.75}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:  -2690.18}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-2512.8986}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-2497.4579}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-2495.0076}  
Iteration 7:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-2495.0009}  
Iteration 8:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-2495.0009}  
{res}
{txt}{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    30,608
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}17{txt}){col 67}= {res}   1753.02
{txt}Penalized log likelihood = {res}-2495.0009{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     AllBusters{col 17}{c |}      Coef.{col 29}   Std. Err.{col 41}      z{col 49}   P>|z|{col 57}     [95% Con{col 70}f. Interval]
{hline 16}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}PartUSSanct {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.3010714{col 29}{space 2} .1313621{col 40}{space 1}   -2.29{col 49}{space 3}0.022{col 57}{space 4}-.5585363{col 70}{space 3}-.0436064
{txt}{space 6}lnlaggdpP {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .7906798{col 29}{space 2}  .028428{col 40}{space 1}   27.81{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}  .734962{col 70}{space 3} .8463976
{txt}{space 2}lagtradeopenP {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0497398{col 29}{space 2} .0242888{col 40}{space 1}    2.05{col 49}{space 3}0.041{col 57}{space 4} .0021347{col 70}{space 3} .0973449
{txt}lagtradesharePT {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 3.892131{col 29}{space 2} .4765714{col 40}{space 1}    8.17{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} 2.958068{col 70}{space 3} 4.826194
{txt}{space 11}DP_I {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 1.110308{col 29}{space 2} .1142761{col 40}{space 1}    9.72{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .8863313{col 70}{space 3} 1.334285
{txt}{space 10}DP_II {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 1.124653{col 29}{space 2} .1463306{col 40}{space 1}    7.69{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}   .83785{col 70}{space 3} 1.411455
{txt}{space 9}DP_III {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .8493117{col 29}{space 2} .2092929{col 40}{space 1}    4.06{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .4391052{col 70}{space 3} 1.259518
{txt}{space 11}JD_I {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .2802261{col 29}{space 2} .1973034{col 40}{space 1}    1.42{col 49}{space 3}0.156{col 57}{space 4}-.1064815{col 70}{space 3} .6669338
{txt}{space 10}JD_II {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .5738097{col 29}{space 2} .1612014{col 40}{space 1}    3.56{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .2578608{col 70}{space 3} .8897586
{txt}{space 9}JD_III {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .1217844{col 29}{space 2} .1193025{col 40}{space 1}    1.02{col 49}{space 3}0.307{col 57}{space 4}-.1120442{col 70}{space 3}  .355613
{txt}{space 9}lndist {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.7389809{col 29}{space 2} .0613508{col 40}{space 1}  -12.05{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.8592262{col 70}{space 3}-.6187357
{txt}{space 7}Neighbor {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-3.706232{col 29}{space 2} .4881195{col 40}{space 1}   -7.59{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-4.662929{col 70}{space 3}-2.749536
{txt}{space 6}lnlaggdpT {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.2192011{col 29}{space 2} .0251257{col 40}{space 1}   -8.72{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.2684466{col 70}{space 3}-.1699556
{txt}{space 7}SevSanct {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.3248995{col 29}{space 2} .1229316{col 40}{space 1}   -2.64{col 49}{space 3}0.008{col 57}{space 4} -.565841{col 70}{space 3} -.083958
{txt}{space 9}NoBust {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-1.970356{col 29}{space 2} .3561131{col 40}{space 1}   -5.53{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-2.668325{col 70}{space 3}-1.272387
{txt}{space 6}NoBust_sq {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .5783127{col 29}{space 2} .3623733{col 40}{space 1}    1.60{col 49}{space 3}0.111{col 57}{space 4}-.1319259{col 70}{space 3} 1.288551
{txt}{space 6}NoBust_cb {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0554613{col 29}{space 2} .0847724{col 40}{space 1}   -0.65{col 49}{space 3}0.513{col 57}{space 4}-.2216123{col 70}{space 3} .1106896
{txt}{space 10}_cons {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-8.126154{col 29}{space 2}  .770745{col 40}{space 1}  -10.54{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-9.636786{col 70}{space 3}-6.615521
{txt}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo M12: relogit AllBusters PartUSSanct      lnlaggdpP lagtradeopenP lagtradesharePT  DP_I DP_II DP_III     JD_I JD_II JD_III lndist  Neighbor lnlaggdpT  SevSanct  NoBust NoBust_sq NoBust_cb if  tradeTP!=. & duration>3
{txt}(44,865 missing values generated)


Corrected logit estimates                             Number of obs ={res}    52535

{txt}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 17}{c |}{col 29}    Robust
{col 1}     AllBusters{col 17}{c |}      Coef.{col 29}   Std. Err.{col 41}      z{col 49}   P>|z|{col 57}     [95% Con{col 70}f. Interval]
{hline 16}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}PartUSSanct {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.5562578{col 29}{space 2} .1405639{col 40}{space 1}   -3.96{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} -.831758{col 70}{space 3}-.2807577
{txt}{space 6}lnlaggdpP {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .5875838{col 29}{space 2} .0286829{col 40}{space 1}   20.49{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .5313664{col 70}{space 3} .6438013
{txt}{space 2}lagtradeopenP {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0901328{col 29}{space 2} .0078122{col 40}{space 1}   11.54{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0748212{col 70}{space 3} .1054444
{txt}lagtradesharePT {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 5.151182{col 29}{space 2} 1.208483{col 40}{space 1}    4.26{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} 2.782599{col 70}{space 3} 7.519765
{txt}{space 11}DP_I {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .3652542{col 29}{space 2} .0996049{col 40}{space 1}    3.67{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .1700321{col 70}{space 3} .5604762
{txt}{space 10}DP_II {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0018168{col 29}{space 2} .2053808{col 40}{space 1}    0.01{col 49}{space 3}0.993{col 57}{space 4} -.400722{col 70}{space 3} .4043557
{txt}{space 9}DP_III {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .3099289{col 29}{space 2} .1980985{col 40}{space 1}    1.56{col 49}{space 3}0.118{col 57}{space 4}-.0783372{col 70}{space 3} .6981949
{txt}{space 11}JD_I {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.3298295{col 29}{space 2} .3150187{col 40}{space 1}   -1.05{col 49}{space 3}0.295{col 57}{space 4}-.9472548{col 70}{space 3} .2875957
{txt}{space 10}JD_II {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .3975413{col 29}{space 2}  .161285{col 40}{space 1}    2.46{col 49}{space 3}0.014{col 57}{space 4} .0814286{col 70}{space 3}  .713654
{txt}{space 9}JD_III {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.3343261{col 29}{space 2} .1091654{col 40}{space 1}   -3.06{col 49}{space 3}0.002{col 57}{space 4}-.5482864{col 70}{space 3}-.1203658
{txt}{space 9}lndist {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.3531524{col 29}{space 2} .0550735{col 40}{space 1}   -6.41{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.4610944{col 70}{space 3}-.2452103
{txt}{space 7}Neighbor {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} -1.66663{col 29}{space 2} .4484961{col 40}{space 1}   -3.72{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-2.545666{col 70}{space 3}-.7875939
{txt}{space 6}lnlaggdpT {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.1134626{col 29}{space 2} .0272428{col 40}{space 1}   -4.16{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.1668576{col 70}{space 3}-.0600676
{txt}{space 7}SevSanct {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0433601{col 29}{space 2} .1079977{col 40}{space 1}   -0.40{col 49}{space 3}0.688{col 57}{space 4}-.2550317{col 70}{space 3} .1683114
{txt}{space 9}NoBust {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} -1.03188{col 29}{space 2} .0405108{col 40}{space 1}  -25.47{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} -1.11128{col 70}{space 3}-.9524803
{txt}{space 6}NoBust_sq {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0509028{col 29}{space 2} .0039878{col 40}{space 1}   12.76{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0430869{col 70}{space 3} .0587187
{txt}{space 6}NoBust_cb {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} -.000697{col 29}{space 2}  .000087{col 40}{space 1}   -8.01{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.0008676{col 70}{space 3}-.0005264
{txt}{space 10}_cons {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-6.563769{col 29}{space 2}  .782336{col 40}{space 1}   -8.39{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} -8.09712{col 70}{space 3}-5.030419
{txt}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo M13: firthlogit AllBusters PartUSSanct   lnlaggdpP lagtradeopenP lagtradesharePT  DP_I DP_II DP_III     JD_I JD_II JD_III lndist  Neighbor lnlaggdpT  SevSanct NoBust NoBust_sq NoBust_cb if  tradeTP!=. & duration>3
{res}
{txt}initial:{col 16}penalized log likelihood = {res:-6326.5311}
rescale:{col 16}penalized log likelihood = {res:-6326.5311}
{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-6326.5311}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-4394.0298}  (not concave)
Iteration 2:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-2788.2905}  (not concave)
Iteration 3:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-2617.0131}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-2516.3756}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-2490.9802}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-2483.3716}  
Iteration 7:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-2483.1834}  
Iteration 8:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-2483.1832}  
{res}
{txt}{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    52,535
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}17{txt}){col 67}= {res}   3771.05
{txt}Penalized log likelihood = {res}-2483.1832{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     AllBusters{col 17}{c |}      Coef.{col 29}   Std. Err.{col 41}      z{col 49}   P>|z|{col 57}     [95% Con{col 70}f. Interval]
{hline 16}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}PartUSSanct {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.5563463{col 29}{space 2} .1390976{col 40}{space 1}   -4.00{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.8289726{col 70}{space 3}-.2837201
{txt}{space 6}lnlaggdpP {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .5875808{col 29}{space 2} .0300802{col 40}{space 1}   19.53{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .5286247{col 70}{space 3} .6465368
{txt}{space 2}lagtradeopenP {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  .089749{col 29}{space 2} .0229446{col 40}{space 1}    3.91{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0447783{col 70}{space 3} .1347197
{txt}lagtradesharePT {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  5.15122{col 29}{space 2} 1.035289{col 40}{space 1}    4.98{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} 3.122091{col 70}{space 3} 7.180348
{txt}{space 11}DP_I {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .3652411{col 29}{space 2} .1091585{col 40}{space 1}    3.35{col 49}{space 3}0.001{col 57}{space 4} .1512944{col 70}{space 3} .5791878
{txt}{space 10}DP_II {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0018221{col 29}{space 2} .2111305{col 40}{space 1}    0.01{col 49}{space 3}0.993{col 57}{space 4}-.4119861{col 70}{space 3} .4156302
{txt}{space 9}DP_III {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .3099444{col 29}{space 2} .1853705{col 40}{space 1}    1.67{col 49}{space 3}0.095{col 57}{space 4}-.0533751{col 70}{space 3}  .673264
{txt}{space 11}JD_I {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.3301223{col 29}{space 2} .3039128{col 40}{space 1}   -1.09{col 49}{space 3}0.277{col 57}{space 4}-.9257805{col 70}{space 3} .2655358
{txt}{space 10}JD_II {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .3975749{col 29}{space 2} .1862925{col 40}{space 1}    2.13{col 49}{space 3}0.033{col 57}{space 4} .0324484{col 70}{space 3} .7627014
{txt}{space 9}JD_III {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.3343464{col 29}{space 2} .1173305{col 40}{space 1}   -2.85{col 49}{space 3}0.004{col 57}{space 4}-.5643099{col 70}{space 3} -.104383
{txt}{space 9}lndist {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.3531685{col 29}{space 2} .0479599{col 40}{space 1}   -7.36{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.4471683{col 70}{space 3}-.2591688
{txt}{space 7}Neighbor {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-1.666813{col 29}{space 2} .3774662{col 40}{space 1}   -4.42{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-2.406633{col 70}{space 3} -.926993
{txt}{space 6}lnlaggdpT {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.1134526{col 29}{space 2} .0283616{col 40}{space 1}   -4.00{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.1690403{col 70}{space 3} -.057865
{txt}{space 7}SevSanct {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0433582{col 29}{space 2} .1119166{col 40}{space 1}   -0.39{col 49}{space 3}0.698{col 57}{space 4}-.2627108{col 70}{space 3} .1759943
{txt}{space 9}NoBust {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-1.031898{col 29}{space 2} .0275297{col 40}{space 1}  -37.48{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-1.085855{col 70}{space 3}-.9779406
{txt}{space 6}NoBust_sq {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0509035{col 29}{space 2} .0020982{col 40}{space 1}   24.26{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0467911{col 70}{space 3} .0550159
{txt}{space 6}NoBust_cb {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} -.000697{col 29}{space 2} .0000406{col 40}{space 1}  -17.17{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.0007766{col 70}{space 3}-.0006174
{txt}{space 10}_cons {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-6.563568{col 29}{space 2} .7238434{col 40}{space 1}   -9.07{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-7.982275{col 70}{space 3}-5.144861
{txt}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. esttab M10 M11 M12 M13,  se(2) pr2 b(3) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)
{res}
{txt}{hline 76}
{txt}                      (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)   
{txt}               AllBusters      AllBusters      AllBusters      AllBusters   
{txt}{hline 76}
{res}main                                                                        {txt}
{txt}PartUSSanct {res}       -0.301**        -0.301**        -0.556***       -0.556***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.12{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.13{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.14{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.14{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}lnlaggdpP   {res}        0.791***        0.791***        0.588***        0.588***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.03{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.03{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.03{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.03{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}lagtradeop~P{res}        0.050***        0.050**         0.090***        0.090***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.02{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.02{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.01{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.02{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}lagtradesh~T{res}        3.893***        3.892***        5.151***        5.151***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.56{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.48{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.21{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.04{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}DP_I        {res}        1.110***        1.110***        0.365***        0.365***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.11{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.11{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.10{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.11{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}DP_II       {res}        1.125***        1.125***        0.002           0.002   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.14{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.15{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.21{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.21{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}DP_III      {res}        0.849***        0.849***        0.310           0.310*  {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.22{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.21{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.20{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.19{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}JD_I        {res}        0.280           0.280          -0.330          -0.330   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.21{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.20{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.32{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.30{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}JD_II       {res}        0.574***        0.574***        0.398**         0.398** {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.16{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.16{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.16{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.19{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}JD_III      {res}        0.122           0.122          -0.334***       -0.334***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.11{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.12{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.11{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.12{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}lndist      {res}       -0.739***       -0.739***       -0.353***       -0.353***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.09{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.06{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.06{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.05{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Neighbor    {res}       -3.706***       -3.706***       -1.667***       -1.667***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.75{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.49{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.45{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.38{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}lnlaggdpT   {res}       -0.219***       -0.219***       -0.113***       -0.113***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.03{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.03{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.03{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.03{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}SevSanct    {res}       -0.325**        -0.325***       -0.043          -0.043   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.13{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.12{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.11{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.11{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}NoBust      {res}       -1.970***       -1.970***       -1.032***       -1.032***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.36{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.36{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.04{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.03{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}NoBust_sq   {res}        0.578           0.578           0.051***        0.051***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.36{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.36{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}NoBust_cb   {res}       -0.055          -0.055          -0.001***       -0.001***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.09{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.08{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}_cons       {res}       -8.126***       -8.126***       -6.564***       -6.564***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.97{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.77{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.78{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.72{txt:)}}   {txt}
{txt}{hline 76}
{txt}N           {res}        30608           30608           52535           52535   {txt}
{txt}pseudo R-sq {res}                                                                {txt}
{txt}{hline 76}
{txt}Standard errors in parentheses
{txt}* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

{com}. 
. 
. **Appendix Table A6: Analyzing the Determinants of Extensive Trade-Based Sanctions Busting with Only Severe Sanctions Episodes**
. 
. eststo M14: logit AllBusters PartUSSanct        lnlaggdpP lagtradeopenP lagtradesharePT  DP_I DP_II DP_III     JD_I JD_II JD_III lndist  Neighbor lnlaggdpT  SevSanct partnerSevSanct duration  NoBust NoBust_sq NoBust_cb if  tradeTP!=., robust

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-10408.928}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-7693.8649}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-5673.2794}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-5365.0672}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -5346.892}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-5346.4372}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-5346.4369}  
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    83,143
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}19{txt}){col 67}= {res}   4202.00
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-5346.4369{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.4864

{txt}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 17}{c |}{col 29}    Robust
{col 1}     AllBusters{col 17}{c |}      Coef.{col 29}   Std. Err.{col 41}      z{col 49}   P>|z|{col 57}     [95% Con{col 70}f. Interval]
{hline 16}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}PartUSSanct {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.4084105{col 29}{space 2}  .094068{col 40}{space 1}   -4.34{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.5927805{col 70}{space 3}-.2240406
{txt}{space 6}lnlaggdpP {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .7422185{col 29}{space 2} .0183772{col 40}{space 1}   40.39{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .7061998{col 70}{space 3} .7782371
{txt}{space 2}lagtradeopenP {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0630075{col 29}{space 2} .0081342{col 40}{space 1}    7.75{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0470648{col 70}{space 3} .0789503
{txt}lagtradesharePT {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 4.217143{col 29}{space 2} .6323426{col 40}{space 1}    6.67{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} 2.977774{col 70}{space 3} 5.456512
{txt}{space 11}DP_I {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .8418832{col 29}{space 2} .0692266{col 40}{space 1}   12.16{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .7062016{col 70}{space 3} .9775649
{txt}{space 10}DP_II {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .7763397{col 29}{space 2} .1046609{col 40}{space 1}    7.42{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}  .571208{col 70}{space 3} .9814713
{txt}{space 9}DP_III {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .8004998{col 29}{space 2} .1403824{col 40}{space 1}    5.70{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .5253554{col 70}{space 3} 1.075644
{txt}{space 11}JD_I {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0984336{col 29}{space 2} .1641741{col 40}{space 1}   -0.60{col 49}{space 3}0.549{col 57}{space 4} -.420209{col 70}{space 3} .2233417
{txt}{space 10}JD_II {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .3835683{col 29}{space 2} .1065228{col 40}{space 1}    3.60{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .1747875{col 70}{space 3} .5923491
{txt}{space 9}JD_III {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} -.077051{col 29}{space 2} .0742925{col 40}{space 1}   -1.04{col 49}{space 3}0.300{col 57}{space 4}-.2226616{col 70}{space 3} .0685596
{txt}{space 9}lndist {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.6384555{col 29}{space 2} .0533372{col 40}{space 1}  -11.97{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.7429946{col 70}{space 3}-.5339164
{txt}{space 7}Neighbor {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-3.202767{col 29}{space 2} .4420661{col 40}{space 1}   -7.24{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}  -4.0692{col 70}{space 3}-2.336333
{txt}{space 6}lnlaggdpT {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.1573004{col 29}{space 2}  .018172{col 40}{space 1}   -8.66{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.1929169{col 70}{space 3}-.1216839
{txt}{space 7}SevSanct {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0068253{col 29}{space 2} .0758056{col 40}{space 1}    0.09{col 49}{space 3}0.928{col 57}{space 4} -.141751{col 70}{space 3} .1554015
{txt}partnerSevSanct {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} -.026053{col 29}{space 2} .2426478{col 40}{space 1}   -0.11{col 49}{space 3}0.914{col 57}{space 4}-.5016339{col 70}{space 3} .4495279
{txt}{space 7}duration {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0661689{col 29}{space 2} .0037415{col 40}{space 1}   17.68{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0588357{col 70}{space 3} .0735022
{txt}{space 9}NoBust {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} -.883758{col 29}{space 2}  .036124{col 40}{space 1}  -24.46{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.9545597{col 70}{space 3}-.8129563
{txt}{space 6}NoBust_sq {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0434229{col 29}{space 2} .0036752{col 40}{space 1}   11.82{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0362196{col 70}{space 3} .0506262
{txt}{space 6}NoBust_cb {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0006214{col 29}{space 2} .0000816{col 40}{space 1}   -7.61{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.0007814{col 70}{space 3}-.0004614
{txt}{space 10}_cons {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-8.668287{col 29}{space 2} .6340524{col 40}{space 1}  -13.67{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-9.911007{col 70}{space 3}-7.425567
{txt}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 2}Note: 46 failures and 0 successes completely determined.{p_end}

{com}. eststo M15: relogit AllBusters PartUSSanct      lnlaggdpP lagtradeopenP lagtradesharePT  DP_I DP_II DP_III     JD_I JD_II JD_III lndist  Neighbor lnlaggdpT  SevSanct partnerSevSanct duration  NoBust NoBust_sq NoBust_cb if  tradeTP!=., 
{txt}(44,865 missing values generated)


Corrected logit estimates                             Number of obs ={res}    83143

{txt}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 17}{c |}{col 29}    Robust
{col 1}     AllBusters{col 17}{c |}      Coef.{col 29}   Std. Err.{col 41}      z{col 49}   P>|z|{col 57}     [95% Con{col 70}f. Interval]
{hline 16}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}PartUSSanct {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.4063005{col 29}{space 2} .0940454{col 40}{space 1}   -4.32{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.5906262{col 70}{space 3}-.2219749
{txt}{space 6}lnlaggdpP {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .7410021{col 29}{space 2} .0183728{col 40}{space 1}   40.33{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .7049921{col 70}{space 3} .7770121
{txt}{space 2}lagtradeopenP {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0653993{col 29}{space 2} .0081323{col 40}{space 1}    8.04{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0494604{col 70}{space 3} .0813382
{txt}lagtradesharePT {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 4.188497{col 29}{space 2} .6321949{col 40}{space 1}    6.63{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} 2.949418{col 70}{space 3} 5.427576
{txt}{space 11}DP_I {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .8406329{col 29}{space 2}   .06921{col 40}{space 1}   12.15{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .7049839{col 70}{space 3}  .976282
{txt}{space 10}DP_II {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .7769522{col 29}{space 2} .1046357{col 40}{space 1}    7.43{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .5718699{col 70}{space 3} .9820345
{txt}{space 9}DP_III {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  .801441{col 29}{space 2} .1403487{col 40}{space 1}    5.71{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .5263626{col 70}{space 3} 1.076519
{txt}{space 11}JD_I {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0895132{col 29}{space 2} .1641347{col 40}{space 1}   -0.55{col 49}{space 3}0.586{col 57}{space 4}-.4112113{col 70}{space 3}  .232185
{txt}{space 10}JD_II {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .3846575{col 29}{space 2} .1064972{col 40}{space 1}    3.61{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .1759269{col 70}{space 3} .5933882
{txt}{space 9}JD_III {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0770561{col 29}{space 2} .0742746{col 40}{space 1}   -1.04{col 49}{space 3}0.300{col 57}{space 4}-.2226317{col 70}{space 3} .0685195
{txt}{space 9}lndist {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.6376443{col 29}{space 2} .0533244{col 40}{space 1}  -11.96{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.7421583{col 70}{space 3}-.5331304
{txt}{space 7}Neighbor {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-3.198046{col 29}{space 2} .4419598{col 40}{space 1}   -7.24{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-4.064271{col 70}{space 3}-2.331821
{txt}{space 6}lnlaggdpT {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.1568991{col 29}{space 2} .0181677{col 40}{space 1}   -8.64{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} -.192507{col 70}{space 3}-.1212911
{txt}{space 7}SevSanct {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  .007762{col 29}{space 2} .0757874{col 40}{space 1}    0.10{col 49}{space 3}0.918{col 57}{space 4}-.1407786{col 70}{space 3} .1563025
{txt}partnerSevSanct {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0112977{col 29}{space 2} .2425895{col 40}{space 1}   -0.05{col 49}{space 3}0.963{col 57}{space 4}-.4867643{col 70}{space 3}  .464169
{txt}{space 7}duration {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0660761{col 29}{space 2} .0037406{col 40}{space 1}   17.66{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0587446{col 70}{space 3} .0734077
{txt}{space 9}NoBust {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.8818035{col 29}{space 2} .0361153{col 40}{space 1}  -24.42{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.9525882{col 70}{space 3}-.8110188
{txt}{space 6}NoBust_sq {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0432888{col 29}{space 2} .0036743{col 40}{space 1}   11.78{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0360872{col 70}{space 3} .0504904
{txt}{space 6}NoBust_cb {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0006185{col 29}{space 2} .0000816{col 40}{space 1}   -7.58{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.0007785{col 70}{space 3}-.0004585
{txt}{space 10}_cons {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-8.656817{col 29}{space 2}    .6339{col 40}{space 1}  -13.66{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-9.899238{col 70}{space 3}-7.414395
{txt}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo M16: firthlogit AllBusters PartUSSanct   lnlaggdpP lagtradeopenP lagtradesharePT  DP_I DP_II DP_III     JD_I JD_II JD_III lndist  Neighbor lnlaggdpT  SevSanct partnerSevSanct duration  NoBust NoBust_sq NoBust_cb if  tradeTP!=., 
{res}
{txt}initial:{col 16}penalized log likelihood = {res:-10331.794}
rescale:{col 16}penalized log likelihood = {res:-10331.794}
{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-10331.794}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-8022.7822}  (not concave)
Iteration 2:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-6192.6721}  (not concave)
Iteration 3:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-5888.7287}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-5342.8679}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-5278.3393}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-5274.5802}  
Iteration 7:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-5274.5568}  
Iteration 8:{space 3}penalized log likelihood = {res:-5274.5568}  
{res}
{txt}{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    83,143
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}19{txt}){col 67}= {res}   4961.14
{txt}Penalized log likelihood = {res}-5274.5568{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     AllBusters{col 17}{c |}      Coef.{col 29}   Std. Err.{col 41}      z{col 49}   P>|z|{col 57}     [95% Con{col 70}f. Interval]
{hline 16}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}PartUSSanct {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.4063116{col 29}{space 2} .0961209{col 40}{space 1}   -4.23{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.5947051{col 70}{space 3}-.2179182
{txt}{space 6}lnlaggdpP {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  .741001{col 29}{space 2} .0198184{col 40}{space 1}   37.39{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .7021577{col 70}{space 3} .7798442
{txt}{space 2}lagtradeopenP {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0653227{col 29}{space 2} .0162532{col 40}{space 1}    4.02{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}  .033467{col 70}{space 3} .0971784
{txt}lagtradesharePT {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 4.189144{col 29}{space 2} .4221081{col 40}{space 1}    9.92{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} 3.361828{col 70}{space 3} 5.016461
{txt}{space 11}DP_I {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  .840634{col 29}{space 2} .0760857{col 40}{space 1}   11.05{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .6915089{col 70}{space 3} .9897592
{txt}{space 10}DP_II {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .7769446{col 29}{space 2} .1119944{col 40}{space 1}    6.94{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .5574396{col 70}{space 3} .9964496
{txt}{space 9}DP_III {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .8014099{col 29}{space 2} .1295185{col 40}{space 1}    6.19{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .5475582{col 70}{space 3} 1.055262
{txt}{space 11}JD_I {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0895734{col 29}{space 2} .1600302{col 40}{space 1}   -0.56{col 49}{space 3}0.576{col 57}{space 4}-.4032268{col 70}{space 3} .2240801
{txt}{space 10}JD_II {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .3846622{col 29}{space 2} .1142288{col 40}{space 1}    3.37{col 49}{space 3}0.001{col 57}{space 4} .1607778{col 70}{space 3} .6085466
{txt}{space 9}JD_III {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0770518{col 29}{space 2}  .080922{col 40}{space 1}   -0.95{col 49}{space 3}0.341{col 57}{space 4} -.235656{col 70}{space 3} .0815525
{txt}{space 9}lndist {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.6376418{col 29}{space 2} .0383437{col 40}{space 1}  -16.63{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.7127941{col 70}{space 3}-.5624895
{txt}{space 7}Neighbor {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-3.198068{col 29}{space 2} .3069755{col 40}{space 1}  -10.42{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-3.799729{col 70}{space 3}-2.596407
{txt}{space 6}lnlaggdpT {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.1569015{col 29}{space 2}  .017466{col 40}{space 1}   -8.98{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.1911342{col 70}{space 3}-.1226688
{txt}{space 7}SevSanct {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0077628{col 29}{space 2} .0779981{col 40}{space 1}    0.10{col 49}{space 3}0.921{col 57}{space 4}-.1451107{col 70}{space 3} .1606364
{txt}partnerSevSanct {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0114283{col 29}{space 2} .2393269{col 40}{space 1}   -0.05{col 49}{space 3}0.962{col 57}{space 4}-.4805004{col 70}{space 3} .4576439
{txt}{space 7}duration {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0660767{col 29}{space 2} .0031518{col 40}{space 1}   20.96{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0598993{col 70}{space 3}  .072254
{txt}{space 9}NoBust {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.8817992{col 29}{space 2} .0247101{col 40}{space 1}  -35.69{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.9302301{col 70}{space 3}-.8333683
{txt}{space 6}NoBust_sq {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0432883{col 29}{space 2} .0019577{col 40}{space 1}   22.11{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0394513{col 70}{space 3} .0471253
{txt}{space 6}NoBust_cb {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0006185{col 29}{space 2} .0000385{col 40}{space 1}  -16.06{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} -.000694{col 70}{space 3} -.000543
{txt}{space 10}_cons {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-8.656765{col 29}{space 2} .5173706{col 40}{space 1}  -16.73{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-9.670792{col 70}{space 3}-7.642737
{txt}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. esttab M14 M15 M16,  se(2) pr2 b(3) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)
{res}
{txt}{hline 60}
{txt}                      (1)             (2)             (3)   
{txt}               AllBusters      AllBusters      AllBusters   
{txt}{hline 60}
{res}main                                                        {txt}
{txt}PartUSSanct {res}       -0.408***       -0.406***       -0.406***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.09{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.09{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.10{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}lnlaggdpP   {res}        0.742***        0.741***        0.741***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.02{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.02{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.02{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}lagtradeop~P{res}        0.063***        0.065***        0.065***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.01{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.01{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.02{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}lagtradesh~T{res}        4.217***        4.188***        4.189***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.63{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.63{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.42{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}DP_I        {res}        0.842***        0.841***        0.841***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.07{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.07{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.08{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}DP_II       {res}        0.776***        0.777***        0.777***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.10{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.10{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.11{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}DP_III      {res}        0.800***        0.801***        0.801***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.14{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.14{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.13{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}JD_I        {res}       -0.098          -0.090          -0.090   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.16{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.16{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.16{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}JD_II       {res}        0.384***        0.385***        0.385***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.11{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.11{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.11{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}JD_III      {res}       -0.077          -0.077          -0.077   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.07{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.07{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.08{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}lndist      {res}       -0.638***       -0.638***       -0.638***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.05{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.05{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.04{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Neighbor    {res}       -3.203***       -3.198***       -3.198***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.44{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.44{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.31{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}lnlaggdpT   {res}       -0.157***       -0.157***       -0.157***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.02{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.02{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.02{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}SevSanct    {res}        0.007           0.008           0.008   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.08{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.08{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.08{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}partnerSev~t{res}       -0.026          -0.011          -0.011   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.24{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.24{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.24{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}duration    {res}        0.066***        0.066***        0.066***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}NoBust      {res}       -0.884***       -0.882***       -0.882***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.04{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.04{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.02{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}NoBust_sq   {res}        0.043***        0.043***        0.043***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}NoBust_cb   {res}       -0.001***       -0.001***       -0.001***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.00{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}_cons       {res}       -8.668***       -8.657***       -8.657***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.63{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.63{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.52{txt:)}}   {txt}
{txt}{hline 60}
{txt}N           {res}        83143           83143           83143   {txt}
{txt}pseudo R-sq {res}        0.486                                   {txt}
{txt}{hline 60}
{txt}Standard errors in parentheses
{txt}* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

{com}. 
. 
. **Calculating the Observed Effects of U.S. Sanctions on Third Parties**
 /* Note: Make sure to clear the results after running these observed value predictions** */
. logit AllBusters PartUSSanct    lnlaggdpP lagtradeopenP lagtradesharePT  DP_I DP_II DP_III     JD_I JD_II JD_III lndist  Neighbor lnlaggdpT  SevSanct duration  NoBust NoBust_sq NoBust_cb if  tradeTP!=., robust

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-10408.928}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-7694.9796}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -5673.832}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-5366.4643}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-5346.9982}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-5346.4432}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-5346.4427}  
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    83,143
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}18{txt}){col 67}= {res}   4201.65
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-5346.4427{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.4864

{txt}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 17}{c |}{col 29}    Robust
{col 1}     AllBusters{col 17}{c |}      Coef.{col 29}   Std. Err.{col 41}      z{col 49}   P>|z|{col 57}     [95% Con{col 70}f. Interval]
{hline 16}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}PartUSSanct {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.4113051{col 29}{space 2} .0905426{col 40}{space 1}   -4.54{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.5887652{col 70}{space 3}-.2338449
{txt}{space 6}lnlaggdpP {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .7422984{col 29}{space 2} .0183862{col 40}{space 1}   40.37{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .7062622{col 70}{space 3} .7783347
{txt}{space 2}lagtradeopenP {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  .063017{col 29}{space 2}  .008137{col 40}{space 1}    7.74{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0470688{col 70}{space 3} .0789652
{txt}lagtradesharePT {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 4.216748{col 29}{space 2} .6321214{col 40}{space 1}    6.67{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} 2.977813{col 70}{space 3} 5.455683
{txt}{space 11}DP_I {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .8420317{col 29}{space 2} .0692221{col 40}{space 1}   12.16{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .7063589{col 70}{space 3} .9777045
{txt}{space 10}DP_II {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  .777122{col 29}{space 2}  .104579{col 40}{space 1}    7.43{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}  .572151{col 70}{space 3} .9820931
{txt}{space 9}DP_III {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .8010504{col 29}{space 2} .1403387{col 40}{space 1}    5.71{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .5259916{col 70}{space 3} 1.076109
{txt}{space 11}JD_I {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0981279{col 29}{space 2} .1640602{col 40}{space 1}   -0.60{col 49}{space 3}0.550{col 57}{space 4}-.4196799{col 70}{space 3} .2234241
{txt}{space 10}JD_II {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .3837165{col 29}{space 2} .1065019{col 40}{space 1}    3.60{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .1749767{col 70}{space 3} .5924563
{txt}{space 9}JD_III {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0768707{col 29}{space 2} .0742432{col 40}{space 1}   -1.04{col 49}{space 3}0.300{col 57}{space 4}-.2223847{col 70}{space 3} .0686433
{txt}{space 9}lndist {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.6383556{col 29}{space 2} .0533309{col 40}{space 1}  -11.97{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.7428823{col 70}{space 3} -.533829
{txt}{space 7}Neighbor {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-3.201941{col 29}{space 2} .4420426{col 40}{space 1}   -7.24{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-4.068329{col 70}{space 3}-2.335554
{txt}{space 6}lnlaggdpT {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.1573366{col 29}{space 2} .0181843{col 40}{space 1}   -8.65{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.1929772{col 70}{space 3} -.121696
{txt}{space 7}SevSanct {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0070378{col 29}{space 2}   .07583{col 40}{space 1}    0.09{col 49}{space 3}0.926{col 57}{space 4}-.1415862{col 70}{space 3} .1556619
{txt}{space 7}duration {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  .066162{col 29}{space 2} .0037392{col 40}{space 1}   17.69{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0588333{col 70}{space 3} .0734906
{txt}{space 9}NoBust {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.8837798{col 29}{space 2} .0361244{col 40}{space 1}  -24.46{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.9545823{col 70}{space 3}-.8129773
{txt}{space 6}NoBust_sq {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0434242{col 29}{space 2} .0036753{col 40}{space 1}   11.82{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0362207{col 70}{space 3} .0506277
{txt}{space 6}NoBust_cb {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0006214{col 29}{space 2} .0000816{col 40}{space 1}   -7.61{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.0007814{col 70}{space 3}-.0004614
{txt}{space 10}_cons {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-8.670301{col 29}{space 2}  .633701{col 40}{space 1}  -13.68{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-9.912332{col 70}{space 3} -7.42827
{txt}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 2}Note: 46 failures and 0 successes completely determined.{p_end}

{com}. 
. replace  PartUSSanct=0
{txt}(14,928 real changes made)

{com}. 
. predict predNoUSSanct if e(sample)
{txt}(option {bf:pr} assumed; Pr(AllBusters))
(45250 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. replace  PartUSSanct=1
{txt}(128,393 real changes made)

{com}. 
. predict predPartUSSanct if e(sample)
{txt}(option {bf:pr} assumed; Pr(AllBusters))
(45250 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. gen effectsPartUSSanct= predNoUSSanct-predPartUSSanct
{txt}(45,250 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. summ effectsPartUSSanct predNoUSSanct predPartUSSanct

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
effectsPar~t {c |}{res}     83,143     .006481    .0172576   4.49e-10   .1024654
{txt}predNoUSSa~t {c |}{res}     83,143    .0282598    .0995787   1.33e-09   .9999999
{txt}predPartUS~t {c |}{res}     83,143    .0217788    .0850449   8.82e-10   .9999998
{txt}
{com}. 
. clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
{txt}end of do-file
